Sunday, February 6, 2022

Upcoming Market News - Week of Feb 7th, 2022

News which could have some market moving impact for the week of Feb 7th, 2022.

Feb 8th through the 15th - Chinese Money Supply and New Loans

Previous Money Supply: 9%
Previous New Loans: 1130B

Given China is the second largest economy now, I think these numbers are worth keeping an eye on.

Feb 7th - ECB S& RBNZ Presidents Speak

I don't think these speaches will have major impacts on the markets, but should be on your radar since everyone is watching bank policies lately.

Feb 8th - US Trade Balance

Previous: -80.2B

This may have a muted impact because it's a duplicate of the Goods Trade Balance data.

Feb 8th - New Zealand Inflation Expectations

Previous: 2.96%

Reserve Bank of New Zealand's inflation expectations.

Feb 9th - US Crude Oil Inventories, and Bank Member Speeches

Previous US Crude Oil Inventories: -1.0M

Bowman and Mester from the FOMC will be sepaking, and Macklem from the BOC Gov will speak.

Feb 9th - US 10y Bond Auction

Previous: 1.72|2.5

This will be good to watch because it will impact interest rates.

Feb 10th
US CPI (prev: 0.5%)
Core US CPI (prev: 0.6%)
US Unemployment Claims (prev: 238K)
US Mortgage Delinquencies (prev: 4.88%)
US 30-y Bond Auction (prev: 2.08|2.40)
BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
RBA Gov Lowe Speaks

Lots of data to lookout for on this day. Biggest impacts I see will be from CPI, 30y bonds, and banker speeches.

Feb 11th
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (prev: 67.2)

Given this is prelimary, I don't expect much market impact form this.

Monday, January 24, 2022

Upcoming Market News - Week of Jan 23rd, 2022

News which could have some market moving impact for the week of Jan 23rd, 2022.

Jan 24th - Flash Manufacturing PMI & Flsh Services PMI

Previous Manufacturing PMI: 57.7
Previous Services PMI: 57.6

This can be a leading indicator of economic health. Personally, I expect a drop but I'm hoping it stays above 50.

Jan 25th - House Price Index (HPI)

Previous HPI: 1.1%
Previous S&P/CS HPI: 18.4%

In my opinoin, if we don't see a dip in these numbers, we will soon. Raising interest rates will bring up monthly home payments, so logic would say buyers will cool their jets on what they are willing to pay for a house.

Jan 25th - CB Consumer Confidence

Previous: 115.8

I could see this taking a slight dip due to the recent market news, but I don't see a big dip.

Jan 26th - Goods Trade Balance, Prelim Wholesale Inventories, and New Home Sales

Previous Goods Trades Balance: -97.8B
Previous Prelim Wholesale Inventories: 1.2%
Previous New Home Sales: 744K

I'm not seeing any big impacts from this because of the FOMC statement coming later in the day. New home sales might take a slight dip though.

Jan 26th - FOMC Statement and Funds Rate

Previous rate: <0.25%

The fed is going to be the hot topic for all of 2022. My guess is due to the recent bond and stock market activity they will pass on a rate hike for now. However, they will likely talk more about their reduction in QE and other stimulus methods, and provide guidance on expected rate hikes later this year. In any case, we should see some decent market moves from this.

Jan 27th - Advance GDP, and Advance GDP Price Index

Previous Advance GDP: 2.3%
Previous Advance GDP Price Index: 6%

I see these having some decent impact on the markets due to inflation being such an important thing to watch this year.

Jan 27th - Durable Goods Orders, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales

Previous Core Durable Goods Orders: 0.9%
Previous Durable Goods Orders: 2.6%
Previous Unemployment Claims: 230K
Previous Pending Home Sales: -2.2%

I don't foresee much movement from these, except maybe pending home sales due to rising interest rates.

Jan 28th:
Core PCE Price Index
Employment Cost Index
Personal Income
Personal Spending
UoM Consumer Sentiment/Inflation Expectations

Previous Core PCE Price Index: 0.5%
Previous Employment Cost Index: 1.3%
Previous Personal Income: 0.4%
Previous Personal Spending: 0.6%
Previous Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment: 68.8
Previous Revised UoM Inflation Expectations: 4.9%

With all of these being inflation indicators, I expect some price movement from them. The degree of price movement will depend on the degree in change from the previous numbers.

Tuesday, January 18, 2022

Current Market Opinion

So like most people my portfolios have been hit by the recent market movements. For my crypto investments, I'm hoping support holds but may consider selling if we break it. For stocks I did a portfolio review last week and decided to hold for now. Basically, I don't plan on adding to any long positions right now and may consider investing in some shorts with my sidelined cash if things don't improve soon.

Now that the holidays are over, I expect to resume my weekly news posts starting this weekend. I am also almost done with a certification course for work, and once that is over I plan to start looking into automated day trading