Monday, December 27, 2021

First Ice Fishing Trip of 2021/2022 Season

Went out ice fishing Christmas weekend. The first lake was a bit slow, and covered in cloud so I wasn't able to take any decent photos. However, the second lake had the weather clear up for a nice photo op. Caught fish at both lakes, and I'm excited to get out again soon!

Saturday, December 18, 2021

Portfolio Update December 18th 2021

Like most people, I've been getting hammered by the current correction happening in the markets. As you can see, most of my more recent buys are down.

Current distribution




Asset Current P/L
Gold 16.75%
Silver 51.41%
GE 21.50%
VOC -2.89%
T -19.96%
BAC 90.53%
XTZ (Crypto) 54.73%
OMG (Crypto) 265.27%
DKL 80.83%
OMP 117.52%
JNJ 14.12%
VYM 29.62%
CLX -23.04%
SWCH 61.55%
XLM (Crypto) 88.88%
SCHD 19.78%
HRZN 31.82%
VOO 24.21%
QQQ 16.64%
ATOM 156.68%
FIL (Crypto) -10.44%
DGRO 30.65%
AFK -4.73%
ADA (Crypto) 0.33%
NKN (Crpyto) -47.85%
COIN 1.93%
DOGE (Crypto) -53.98%
QYLD -2.76%
GRT (Crypto) -26.89%
NEWT 0.81%
EVC -5.78%
BTC (Crypto) -3.08%
PBW -10.75%
BEP -4.31%
BKKT -66.84%
ACH (Crypto) -25.58%
SHIB (Crypto) -27.74%
ICP (Crypto) -8.88%
ETH (Crypto) -3.31%
ALGO (Crypto) -12.88%

Friday, December 10, 2021

Upcoming Market News - Week of Dec 13th, 2021

News which could have some market moving impact for the week of December 13th, 2021.

US Monthly PPI - 12/14/2021

Previous PPI: 0.6%
Previous Core PPI: 0.4%

Normally I would say we shouldn't see a lot of impact from this, but with inflation on everyone's mind this figure will be one to watch.

US Core Retail Sales - 12/15/2021

Previous retail sales: 1.7% Previous core retail sales: 1.7%

Combine this with the FOMC statment coming later in the day (see below), and we might have some big moves.

FOMC Economic Projections, Statement, and Federal Funds rate - 12/15/2021

Previous funds rate: <0.25%

The fed is always the biggest market mover. Biggest things to look for are what the fed forecasts, and statements/hints to future policy changes. The biggest concern right now is inflation, and how the fed is going to react to it. Note there is also a press conference 30 minutes after the statement at 2pm eastern time.

Saturday, December 4, 2021

Upcoming Market News - Week of Dec 6th 2021

News which could have some market moving impact for the week of December 6th, 2021.

Monthly US Trade Balance - 12/7/2021

Previous: -80.9B

I do not think we will see much impact from this report. Though the foretasted difference from the previous month is a drop in the deficit, the deficit is coming off of a 20 year peak.


Monthly US Consumer Credit - 12/7/2021

Previous: 29.9B

I feel the same way here, don't see much if any impact from this.

Monthly JOLTS Job Openings - 12/8/2021

Previous: 10.44M

Given that this is number of job openings during the reported month (excluding the farming industry) we could see some movement from this.

Weekly US Crude Oil Inventories - 12/8/2021

Previous: -900k

Surprises in this number always have impact on oil and gas prices, so it's one to watch out for if you're a futures trader or own oil & gas companies.

US 10 Year Bond Auction - 12/8/2021

Considering the recent statements from Powell, I feel this is likely to be a market mover.

Weekly US Unemployment Claims - 12/9/2021

Previous:222k

Forecast: 225k

I only see market impact on this if there is a big surprise from the forecast.

Monthly US Wholesale Inventories - 12/9/2021

Previous: 2.2%

Forecast: 2.2%

This could be a market mover due to inflation concerns.

Weekly US Natural Gas Storage - 12/9/2021

Previous: -59B

Just like the weekly oil inventories, it's one to watch out for if you're a futures trader or own oil & gas companies.

US 30 Year Bond Auction - 12/9/2021

J ust like the 10 year auction, I feel this is also likely to be a market mover.

Monthly US CPI & Core CPI - 12/10/2021

Previous (CPI): 0.9%

Previous (Core CPI): 0.6%

Forecast (CPI): 0.7%

Forecast (Core CPI): 0.5%

Again, inflation is a major concern right now so this will be another important report to look out for.

Monthly US Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations - 12/10/2021

I don't this this alone will be a market mover, but combined with the CPI data it could have a little impact.

Monthly US Federal Budget Balance - 12/10/2021

It's never balanced so does it really matter? All jokes aside, I don't see any major impact from this number.

Friday, November 19, 2021

Bow Hunting Season 2021

I have been planning a hunting trip for next week, and realized that I forgot to post about this year's bow hunting season!

This year's bow season ran from September 2nd to the 30th. I was unable to draw the deer license I wanted, but thankfully I was able to get an elk license. The season started and remained very slow. My father currently doesn't get any paid time off so I hunted solo for the first couple of days. The first morning and evening I just sat a spot I bagged a bull in a couple years ago. Saw nothing except squirrels and chipmunks, which was odd because I used to see deer every single day the last time I hunted this spot. I figured it was likely due to it being unusually warm this time of year. Due to the lack of seeing any game, and knowing I didn't see elk until late in the season last time in this spot, I decided to change my strategy. There is a road I used to drive on my way to work that borders private land, which I used to always see elk cross during all times of the year. I figured it was worth it to at least check that out in the morning just to see if the elk are still around. Plus the road is higher in altitude so I figured the elk would be there for the cooler temperatures.

The next morning I slept in a little because I knew the elk would normally cross the road a little after sunrise. Sure enough, I turn onto the road and literally about 200 yards later there is a bull elk getting ready to cross the road to go up the mountain. I check the map and see that he is crossing onto public land, and there is a trail I can hike up which should put me right in his path. I park the truck, grab my gear, and head off into the woods. The forest was very thick, but I found that the trail on my map is actually an old logging road. Stalking my way up this road, I wind up sneaking up on the same bull who had bedded down in the tress just below the trail. However, as I nock an arrow he hears me and boogies off into the timber. I was unable to find him again, but discovered that there is a network of game trails and I could hear elk around me calling each other. In hindsight, the "elk" I was hearing was likely other hunters, but more on that later. Figuring this was a good spot to hunt, I decided to at least hunt the weekend there. Once the morning was done, I headed out to go pick up my father who lives about thirty minutes away. After grabbing brunch with him and my mother, we pack up his stuff and head back out for the afternoon hunt. Hiking up the old logging road we find a heavily used game trail, and start hiking up it. Eventually we pop out at treeline, and stop to take a break. While standing there another hunter walks up to us, and we chat him up about the area. He confirmed that there are elk in the area, and that he and his friend would be leaving the next morning back home (he was from a different state). After parting ways, my father and I continue up the ridge/mountain seeing all kinds of elk sign. We wind up sitting the top and glassing one cow elk miles away on another mountain side which was on private land. Having no luck at the top we decide to hunt our way down the mountain back towards the truck timing it so that we'd be in the timber after sundown. Didn't see any game, but did find a whole bunch of sign which we suspected was from a few days or a week prior.

The next morning we headed back up to the top. We basically spent the entire day up there, having a mid-day nap before the afternoon hunt. Overall, we found that there were many hunters in the area along with a lot of people just out for day hikes. Therefore, after that first weekend we decided to hunt my original spot and there was one day where we checked out a completely differnt area closer to where my father lives. Most of the the season was spent sitting an open area I had shot a bull in a couple years prior, but during our time in there we only saw deer. One afternoon we decided to try a different spot nearby where we were sitting, and we wind up seeing a heard of elk. We tried sneaking in, but by the time we reached them they had just left.

The rest of the season was very boring with no luck. Tried calling, but the elk (at least in the unit I was hunting) never got into the rut so the only responses I received were from other hunters. I found the same heard we bumped into a couple weeks prior on the very last day of the season, near the top of the mountain. However, they were in a spot that was situated above and below very steep mountainsides, which were too dangerous to attempt going after them. I did mange to take some nice photos though. Thankfully we have another oppertunity to hunt coming up next week, so hopefully our luck will be better this time.






Thursday, November 11, 2021

Portfolio Update 11-11-2021

Figured it is about time I provide an update on my portfolio.

Current distribution


Asset Current P/L Long/Short Type
Gold +53.77% Long Metals
Silver +67.98% Long Metals
GE +44.60% Long Stock
VOC -2.89% Long Stock
T -15.82% Long Stock
BAC +105.91% Long Stock
XTZ +114.96% Long Crypto
OMG +1,079.64% Long Crypto
DKL +95.96% Long Stock
OMP +158.45% Long Stock
JNJ +10.59% Long Stock
VYM +30.10% Long Stock
CLX -27.48% Long Stock
SWCH +39.17% Long Stock
XLM +187% Long Crypto
SCHD +20.04% Long Stock
HRZN +45.01% Long Stock
VOO +25.05% Long Stock
QQQ +18.83% Long Stock
ATOM +266.37% Long Crypto
FIL +54.79% Long Crypto
DGRO +30.22% Long Stock
AFK +2.96 Long Stock
ADA +66.75% Long Crypto
NKN +7.78% Long Crypto
COIN +41.47% Long Stock
DOGE -29.32% Long Crypto
QYLD +0.31% Long Stock
GRT +29.92% Long Crypto
NEWT +9.96% Long Stock
EVC +23.05% Long Stock
BTC +52.33% Long Crypto
PBW +14.10% Long Stock
BEP +4.74% Long Stock
BKKT -13.53% Long Stock
ACH +20.86% Long Crypto
SHIB -18.25% Long Crypto
ICP +2.89% Long Crypto

Saturday, October 30, 2021

10-29-2021 Investments

I have been slowly moving some money around ever since I decided to skip buying a home. Today I put some of that cash to work by investing in Bakkt Holdings Inc (BKKT) and adding to my Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (PBW) position. Turns out I got lucky with my timing on BKKT, but since these are investments I'm hoping they continue do well over the years.

Sunday, October 24, 2021

Tezos (XTZ) Staking

There are various coins which allow you to earn rewards/interest, but for this post I am going to focus on Tezos (XTZ). Staking basically means you can earn interest from simply owning coins in a crypto/blockchain.

Tezos uses a proof of stake algorithm (specifically "liquid proof of stake"), which allows for decentralized governance while reducing computing costs when compared to proof of work algorithms.

Tezos staking (AKA "baking") allows anyone with a certain amount of Tezos coins to validate blocks on the Tezos blockchain (a validator is known as a "baker"), and earn rewards based on the size of their stake. Due to the high cost of entry (minimum 1 roll, or 8,000 Tezos at the time of this post) many people choose to delegate their Tezos to a baker. This allows them to earn interest on their Tezos without having to meet the minimum 1 roll requirement. This also works well for those who may meet the minimum requirement, but do not wish to run a computing node. The advantage a baker gets is a higher chance of baking blocks (having more rolls increases your chances of baking a block), and thus a higher chance of earning rewards. When the baker earns their rewards they divvy up the proceeds (minus the baker's service fee) to the delegators based on their delegation size so everyone receives their fair share of the rewards.

Delegation is considered safe because you do not actually move your XTZ coins out of your wallet, nor are they locked up/frozen. You can still use them any time you want. The only thing that happens is your voting rights are delegated to the baker. For the majority of users, delegation is considered the best method because you don't have the costs of maintaining a compute engine, power, cooling, etc.

The easiest method to delegate is to simply hold XTZ in a coinbase wallet. You may also need to opt-in, but in a lot of cases they automatically opt you in if you're eligible to earn rewards/interest. Note that the APY listed on their website is a projected rate. The rate will vary due to how the protocol works (see above).

Friday, October 8, 2021

Candlestick Chart Patterns - Star and Hammer

Candlestick charts are a method of viewing price action. I find them to be more informative than other types of charts such as line, and point and figure. If you're not familiar with how to read a candlestick chart, you can click here to read a post I did on the subject.

Today I will discuss reading star and hammer patterns in candlestick charts. Keep in mind these patterns can have various uses depending on if you use them standalone, or include other indicators. Typically they are used for indicating short term price movements.

Shooting Star

I have seen the shooting star also referred to as an "evening star". The shooting star is formed during strong upward movements in price, forming a wick on both sides of the candle's body, and closing at or near where it opened at. A text book example also shows a gap up between the "star" and previous bar, but I apply the same principal even if the open on the "star" is the same as the close from the previous bar. This is mainly due to trading forex and crypto, which trade 24x7 so there is no ability for it to gap.


In the above screenshot you can see that price had a very strong movement upward. The next bar seemed to continue the momentum, but eventually the bears took over with the result being almost break-even by the time the bar closed. The following day resulted in a drop. Some people prefer to combine this with other indicators, and/or a more equal wick sizing on both the top and bottom so the bar looks more like a star. There are also personal preferences on how large the bar (or upward trend) was prior to the star forming. Overall this is a basic chart pattern which indicates a possible reversal in upward momentum.

Morning Star

The morning star is exactly the same as a shooting/evening star except the chart (price movement) is flipped. Price will have strong movement downward, then a star forms on the following bar. The exact same rules and various personal preferences which apply to shooting stars also apply to morning stars (additional indicators for confirmation, equal wick sizing, etc.).


Hammer

The hammer pattern is very similar to a star pattern except that it only has a single wick, and has a small body so it looks like a hammer.

As you can see in the above example, the wick forms the handle, and the small candle body forms the head. Ideally there would be no wick on the other side. There is also what they call an "inverted hammer" which simply means the "handle" of the hammer is on top of the "head". Both can be used in either direction to signal price reversals. Overall this is a basic chart pattern which indicates a possible reversal in price. Just like the star patterns, the hammer has various personal preferences that vary from trader to trader. Be careful not to mistake a hammer for a dragonfly or gravestone, which will be covered in a future post.

Friday, October 1, 2021

October's Investment

So every month I set aside some savings and invest it like paying a monthly bill. This month's "bill" went into BEP and I also added to my AFK holdings (just waiting on my limit order to fill). My stock portfolio is a bit consirvative so not only did I want to invest more into green energy as I said in my last post, but I believe Africa will eventually be the next China within the next 5-10 years.

Thursday, September 30, 2021

PBW Investment

I just bought some Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (PBW) at $78.30. Decided to jump in on the green energy thing because the US government is pushing so hard to fund it. I had narrowed my choices down to PBW, CNRG, and ICLN. PBW came out the winner due to being US holdings, I prefer the diversity in it's holdings vs CNRG, and it had a slightly higher distribution yield than CNRG.

Wednesday, September 29, 2021

Current Portfolio

Here are my current investments. Since I bought multiple lots over time I decided to just use my current profit/loss (as of the time of this post) instead of entry price. Note that P/L doesn't include interest or dividend earnings.

Asset Current P/L Long/Short Type
Gold +11.54% Long Metals
Silver +43.99% Long Metals
GE +41.56% Long Stock
VOC -7.26% Long Stock
T -7.78% Long Stock
BAC +87.62% Long Stock
XTZ +110.50% Long Crypto
OMG +561.19% Long Crypto
DKL +91.33% Long Stock
OMP +125.25% Long Stock
JNJ +11.42% Long Stock
VYM +23.82% Long Stock
CLX -25.71% Long Stock
SWCH +49.67% Long Stock
XLM +99.95% Long Crypto
SCHD +14.87% Long Stock
HRZN +33.88% Long Stock
VOO +17.21% Long Stock
QQQ +9.23% Long Stock
ATOM +280.16% Long Crypto
FIL +42.11% Long Crypto
DGRO +22.53% Long Stock
AFK -5.08% Long Stock
ADA +66.45% Long Crypto
NKN -58.66% Long Crypto
COIN -5.34% Long Stock
DOGE -46.85% Long Crypto
QYLD -2.63% Long Stock
GRT -24.01% Long Crypto
NEWT +2.04% Long Stock
EVC +3.21% Long Stock
BTC -0.62% Long Stock

I'm back!

Wow 8 years, time flies!

I have decided to pick this blog back up again so now it is time I catch you all up.

I did eventually get the CCNP (Cisco Certified Network Professional) certification. I was then blessed with a job as a Network Engineer at a state of the art data center. After I settled into the job, I decided to go for the CCIE (Cisco Certified Network Expert). I passed the written test and took the lab exam twice, but couldn't seal the deal. After a few years, I transferred so I could work in the world's largest data center. Though the job was awesome, I was homesick for Colorado. I asked my bosses if I could work from home, but they said no so I took a leap of faith by quitting and moving back to CO. Landed a job as a consultant, and the client eventually hired me on as their Network Architect.

I have been back in CO for almost four years, and I started doing long term investing just before COVID hit. I started primarily with stocks/ETFs, and gold/silver. However, I eventually branched out into investing in various crypto currencies. More info on my investments will come in future posts.

Outside of work, I had picked up crossfit when I was at my old job which put me in excellent shape. However, I let myself go when I moved back to CO. I've also resumed my backpacking, fishing, hiking, ice-fishing, and hunting hobbies since I came back.

Now that I have established myself in the IT career field I have been thinking about future plans. My current goal is to become financially independent, and to make that happen I've decided to try day trading again. My plans for this blog are to basically pick up where I left off. I will be mostly journaling my investments, trades, and anything else I do in the financial markets. However, having a day job now means I might not be posting every day but I will post as often as I can!

That's it for now. I kept it short, but if you would like to know more let me know in the comments. Please also comment if you are someone who followed me when I was active. I'm curious to see where you are now in your trading endeavors, and what you've learned over the years!