Update, and a career change

So, been a while since I've posted. I've had a lot going on recently (hunting mostly), and did a lot of thinking.

Hunting season turned out to be a dud this year, only came home with 1 deer out of all the tags we had. Hopefully next year will be different since we'll be able to hunt with the new muzzle loader we bought in our favorite hunting season, September.

On to the more important topic..... trading. I've decided to no longer trade. It's been a lot of wheel spinning with profits and losses equating to an overall loss over the years. I feel like it's time to move on (at least for now), to more enjoyable things. After doing some thinking I realized that I like to code software. After dipping my toes into a few things (mainly C++ and PhP), I decided to become a web developer. The biggest thing that influenced that choice over say a software developer (programs/games) is my mom has started a new business and needed someone to develop the web site for it.

I may return to trading some day. Likely as a hobby than a career though. I plan on keeping this blog around for the few times I might trade here and there. Hope you all do well in your trading, and thank you for reading.

Trades from 10-16-12 part 1

Here are the trades from the 16th that I've closed. I am still currently in CHF/JPY on a long so I'll post the final result once I exit that trade.

Forex: 4 trades, 1 loss and 3 gains for a total of +0.88%

Trades for 10-15-12

Forex: 1 trade for a break even

Trades for 10-12-12

2 trades, both gains for a total of +2.56%

One last shot

So after much thought I've decided to continue trading. The plan is to paper-trade from now until I get back from hunting (though there is a chance I might go to real trading sooner). I will be trading hourly charts, with my father. We did some back testing and it seems I do much better when we're tag-teaming it. If we don't have a profit by the time the new year begins I will be choosing a different career path. If we're at a profit than I will re-evaluate my career plans (trading part-time or continue with full time).

Trades for 10-10-12

Forex: 1 trade for a total of +3.50%

Trades for 10-9-12

Forex: 2 trades, both losses for a total of -10.75%

Trades for 10-8-12

Forex: 4 trades all losses for a total of -18.39%

Trades for 10-5-12

Forex: 4 trades, 2 losses, 1 flat, and 1 gain for a total of -20.40%

Trades for 10-4-12

Forex: 4 trades, all losses for a total of -21.90%

Trades for 10-3-12

Forex: 2 trades, 1 loss and 1 gain for a total of +7.79%

Trades for 10-1-12

Forex: 4 trades, 1 loss, and 3 gains for a total of +5.29%

Trades for 9-28-12

Forex: 3 trades, all losses for a total of -21.30%

Trades for 9-27-12

Forex: 1 trade for a total of +4.49%

Trades for 9-26-12

As you can see in the screenshot I used the 30min chart to make my entry on the 1st trade this morning. For my 2nd trade I decided to trade it based on a break of support. Lastly, if I had held on a little longer in my 3rd trade I would have made back all the money I lost in the 2nd one.

Forex: 3 trades, 1 loss and 2 gains for a total of +1.19%

Trades for 9-25-12

Forex: 2 trades, both gains for a total of +17.73%

News schedule for this week

Nothing really big is scheduled for this week (except for bond auction), but keep your eye out for these items for some intraday moves (all times are EST):

Tuesday Sep 25th:

SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks - Tentative

Canada Retail Sales m/m - 8:30am

ECB President Draghi Speaks - 9:00am

US consumer confidence - 10:00am

Wednesday Sep 26th:

US new home sales - 10:00am

NBNZ Business Confidence - 9:00pm

Thursday Sep 27th:

UK Current Account - 4:30am

UK Final GDP q/q - 4:30am

Italian 10-y Bond Auction - Tentative

US Durable Goods Orders m/m - 8:30am

US Unemployment Claims - 8:30am

US Final GDP q/q - 8:30am

US Pending Home Sales m/m - 10:00am

Japan Unemployment Rate 7:30pm

Friday Sep 28th:

French Consumer Spending m/m - 2:45am

Canada GDP m/m - 8:30am

US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment - 9:55am

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands, invented by a guy name John Bollinger, are one of the most popular tools available to traders (both long and short term). Their design is intended to show a relative definition of high and low, via upper and lower bands. The middle band (though not always shown) is a moving average which shows the direction of the current trend.

The working parts
The distance between the upper and lower bands show price volatility. The farther apart they are the more volatile price action is, and the opposite is true when they are close to each other. Most charting software defaults to plotting Bollinger bands with a 20 period moving average, and a 2 standard deviation. However you can adjust this setting to fit your trading style/preference.

The math
Though they can use other forms of moving averages (MA) the most common is the simple moving average. The first step is calculating the simple moving average:

The next is to calculate for the upper band:

Lastly we calculate for the lower band:

Ways of trading
There are many ways of interpreting Bollinger Bands...
1.) Some traders will buy when price is oversold (touching the lower band), and exit when price touches the middle band. The opposite is true for shorts (short when price touches the upper band, exit when it touches the middle band).

2.) Others will wait until price actually crosses above the upper band to long, and to short they will wait until price crosses below the lower band.

Just like most indicators, Bollinger Bands are often used in conjunction with other indicators. Usually the other indicator(s) will be a chart pattern, trendline, or other form of non-oscillating indicator(s).

They are also not just for any one trading instrument, they can be used to trade may things from currencies to stocks to bonds.

My personal take
My personal take on them would be to use the first mentioned way for trading during consolidation (there is no trend, price is in a range). I would use the second way for breakouts from ranges with a trading stop.

Trades for 9-24-12

Forex: 3 trades, 2 losses and 1 gain for a total of -4.40%

Trades for 9-21-12

Forex: 1 trade for a total of +.60%

Trades for 9-20-12

Forex: 2 trades, 1 loss and 1 gain for a total of +2.82%

Trades for 9-19-12

Forex: 3 trades, 2 losses and 1 gain for a total of -1.90%

Trades for 9-18-12

Forex: 2 trades, both gains for a total of +13.89%

Trades for 9-17-12

Forex: 2 trades, both gains for a total of +11.49%

Buck hunting

It took my dad a couple shots but we got him! Now it's just a matter of time before we go back out for my elk hunt in October.

Trades for 9-11-12

I should have held my 2nd trade longer but I'm a bit "gun shy" after the beating I took this past month.

2 trades, 1 loss and 1 gain for a total of +5.09%

Trades for 9-6-12

Forex: 2 trades, both losses for a total of -9.74%

Trades for 9-4-12

Forex: 1 trade for a total of +6.89%

Trades for 8-31-12

Forex: 3 trades, 2 losses and 1 gain for a total of +0.69%

Trades for 8-30-12

Forex: 2 trades, 1 loss and 1 gain for breakeven overall

Trades for 8-29-12

Forex: 2 trades, 1 loss and 1 gain for a total of +0.84%

Trades for 8-22-12

Forex: 2 trades, both losses for a total of -11.53%

Scouting for elk

This past weekend my Dad and I went out scouting for elk. Came up on a heard of over 150! It was a long hike for sure, but well worth it.

Even managed to get a video of the herd running away after they spotted us.