Sunday, February 6, 2022

Upcoming Market News - Week of Feb 7th, 2022

News which could have some market moving impact for the week of Feb 7th, 2022.

Feb 8th through the 15th - Chinese Money Supply and New Loans

Previous Money Supply: 9%
Previous New Loans: 1130B

Given China is the second largest economy now, I think these numbers are worth keeping an eye on.

Feb 7th - ECB S& RBNZ Presidents Speak

I don't think these speaches will have major impacts on the markets, but should be on your radar since everyone is watching bank policies lately.

Feb 8th - US Trade Balance

Previous: -80.2B

This may have a muted impact because it's a duplicate of the Goods Trade Balance data.

Feb 8th - New Zealand Inflation Expectations

Previous: 2.96%

Reserve Bank of New Zealand's inflation expectations.

Feb 9th - US Crude Oil Inventories, and Bank Member Speeches

Previous US Crude Oil Inventories: -1.0M

Bowman and Mester from the FOMC will be sepaking, and Macklem from the BOC Gov will speak.

Feb 9th - US 10y Bond Auction

Previous: 1.72|2.5

This will be good to watch because it will impact interest rates.

Feb 10th
US CPI (prev: 0.5%)
Core US CPI (prev: 0.6%)
US Unemployment Claims (prev: 238K)
US Mortgage Delinquencies (prev: 4.88%)
US 30-y Bond Auction (prev: 2.08|2.40)
BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
RBA Gov Lowe Speaks

Lots of data to lookout for on this day. Biggest impacts I see will be from CPI, 30y bonds, and banker speeches.

Feb 11th
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (prev: 67.2)

Given this is prelimary, I don't expect much market impact form this.

Monday, January 24, 2022

Upcoming Market News - Week of Jan 23rd, 2022

News which could have some market moving impact for the week of Jan 23rd, 2022.

Jan 24th - Flash Manufacturing PMI & Flsh Services PMI

Previous Manufacturing PMI: 57.7
Previous Services PMI: 57.6

This can be a leading indicator of economic health. Personally, I expect a drop but I'm hoping it stays above 50.

Jan 25th - House Price Index (HPI)

Previous HPI: 1.1%
Previous S&P/CS HPI: 18.4%

In my opinoin, if we don't see a dip in these numbers, we will soon. Raising interest rates will bring up monthly home payments, so logic would say buyers will cool their jets on what they are willing to pay for a house.

Jan 25th - CB Consumer Confidence

Previous: 115.8

I could see this taking a slight dip due to the recent market news, but I don't see a big dip.

Jan 26th - Goods Trade Balance, Prelim Wholesale Inventories, and New Home Sales

Previous Goods Trades Balance: -97.8B
Previous Prelim Wholesale Inventories: 1.2%
Previous New Home Sales: 744K

I'm not seeing any big impacts from this because of the FOMC statement coming later in the day. New home sales might take a slight dip though.

Jan 26th - FOMC Statement and Funds Rate

Previous rate: <0.25%

The fed is going to be the hot topic for all of 2022. My guess is due to the recent bond and stock market activity they will pass on a rate hike for now. However, they will likely talk more about their reduction in QE and other stimulus methods, and provide guidance on expected rate hikes later this year. In any case, we should see some decent market moves from this.

Jan 27th - Advance GDP, and Advance GDP Price Index

Previous Advance GDP: 2.3%
Previous Advance GDP Price Index: 6%

I see these having some decent impact on the markets due to inflation being such an important thing to watch this year.

Jan 27th - Durable Goods Orders, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales

Previous Core Durable Goods Orders: 0.9%
Previous Durable Goods Orders: 2.6%
Previous Unemployment Claims: 230K
Previous Pending Home Sales: -2.2%

I don't foresee much movement from these, except maybe pending home sales due to rising interest rates.

Jan 28th:
Core PCE Price Index
Employment Cost Index
Personal Income
Personal Spending
UoM Consumer Sentiment/Inflation Expectations

Previous Core PCE Price Index: 0.5%
Previous Employment Cost Index: 1.3%
Previous Personal Income: 0.4%
Previous Personal Spending: 0.6%
Previous Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment: 68.8
Previous Revised UoM Inflation Expectations: 4.9%

With all of these being inflation indicators, I expect some price movement from them. The degree of price movement will depend on the degree in change from the previous numbers.

Tuesday, January 18, 2022

Current Market Opinion

So like most people my portfolios have been hit by the recent market movements. For my crypto investments, I'm hoping support holds but may consider selling if we break it. For stocks I did a portfolio review last week and decided to hold for now. Basically, I don't plan on adding to any long positions right now and may consider investing in some shorts with my sidelined cash if things don't improve soon.

Now that the holidays are over, I expect to resume my weekly news posts starting this weekend. I am also almost done with a certification course for work, and once that is over I plan to start looking into automated day trading

Monday, December 27, 2021

First Ice Fishing Trip of 2021/2022 Season

Went out ice fishing Christmas weekend. The first lake was a bit slow, and covered in cloud so I wasn't able to take any decent photos. However, the second lake had the weather clear up for a nice photo op. Caught fish at both lakes, and I'm excited to get out again soon!

Saturday, December 18, 2021

Portfolio Update December 18th 2021

Like most people, I've been getting hammered by the current correction happening in the markets. As you can see, most of my more recent buys are down.

Current distribution

Asset Current P/L
Gold 16.75%
Silver 51.41%
GE 21.50%
VOC -2.89%
T -19.96%
BAC 90.53%
XTZ (Crypto) 54.73%
OMG (Crypto) 265.27%
DKL 80.83%
OMP 117.52%
JNJ 14.12%
VYM 29.62%
CLX -23.04%
SWCH 61.55%
XLM (Crypto) 88.88%
SCHD 19.78%
HRZN 31.82%
VOO 24.21%
QQQ 16.64%
ATOM 156.68%
FIL (Crypto) -10.44%
DGRO 30.65%
AFK -4.73%
ADA (Crypto) 0.33%
NKN (Crpyto) -47.85%
COIN 1.93%
DOGE (Crypto) -53.98%
QYLD -2.76%
GRT (Crypto) -26.89%
NEWT 0.81%
EVC -5.78%
BTC (Crypto) -3.08%
PBW -10.75%
BEP -4.31%
BKKT -66.84%
ACH (Crypto) -25.58%
SHIB (Crypto) -27.74%
ICP (Crypto) -8.88%
ETH (Crypto) -3.31%
ALGO (Crypto) -12.88%

Friday, December 10, 2021

Upcoming Market News - Week of Dec 13th, 2021

News which could have some market moving impact for the week of December 13th, 2021.

US Monthly PPI - 12/14/2021

Previous PPI: 0.6%
Previous Core PPI: 0.4%

Normally I would say we shouldn't see a lot of impact from this, but with inflation on everyone's mind this figure will be one to watch.

US Core Retail Sales - 12/15/2021

Previous retail sales: 1.7% Previous core retail sales: 1.7%

Combine this with the FOMC statment coming later in the day (see below), and we might have some big moves.

FOMC Economic Projections, Statement, and Federal Funds rate - 12/15/2021

Previous funds rate: <0.25%

The fed is always the biggest market mover. Biggest things to look for are what the fed forecasts, and statements/hints to future policy changes. The biggest concern right now is inflation, and how the fed is going to react to it. Note there is also a press conference 30 minutes after the statement at 2pm eastern time.

Saturday, December 4, 2021

Upcoming Market News - Week of Dec 6th 2021

News which could have some market moving impact for the week of December 6th, 2021.

Monthly US Trade Balance - 12/7/2021

Previous: -80.9B

I do not think we will see much impact from this report. Though the foretasted difference from the previous month is a drop in the deficit, the deficit is coming off of a 20 year peak.

Monthly US Consumer Credit - 12/7/2021

Previous: 29.9B

I feel the same way here, don't see much if any impact from this.

Monthly JOLTS Job Openings - 12/8/2021

Previous: 10.44M

Given that this is number of job openings during the reported month (excluding the farming industry) we could see some movement from this.

Weekly US Crude Oil Inventories - 12/8/2021

Previous: -900k

Surprises in this number always have impact on oil and gas prices, so it's one to watch out for if you're a futures trader or own oil & gas companies.

US 10 Year Bond Auction - 12/8/2021

Considering the recent statements from Powell, I feel this is likely to be a market mover.

Weekly US Unemployment Claims - 12/9/2021


Forecast: 225k

I only see market impact on this if there is a big surprise from the forecast.

Monthly US Wholesale Inventories - 12/9/2021

Previous: 2.2%

Forecast: 2.2%

This could be a market mover due to inflation concerns.

Weekly US Natural Gas Storage - 12/9/2021

Previous: -59B

Just like the weekly oil inventories, it's one to watch out for if you're a futures trader or own oil & gas companies.

US 30 Year Bond Auction - 12/9/2021

J ust like the 10 year auction, I feel this is also likely to be a market mover.

Monthly US CPI & Core CPI - 12/10/2021

Previous (CPI): 0.9%

Previous (Core CPI): 0.6%

Forecast (CPI): 0.7%

Forecast (Core CPI): 0.5%

Again, inflation is a major concern right now so this will be another important report to look out for.

Monthly US Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations - 12/10/2021

I don't this this alone will be a market mover, but combined with the CPI data it could have a little impact.

Monthly US Federal Budget Balance - 12/10/2021

It's never balanced so does it really matter? All jokes aside, I don't see any major impact from this number.